The US-Venezuela deportation-flight arrangement is paused for 30 or more consecutive days at some point in the next 12 months.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Another natural disaster damaging Venezuelan airport infrastructure, a diplomatic rupture, or a US policy shift, versus absence of confirmed flights for a full month in public reporting.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 5 Aug 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
We think it's unlikely the US-Venezuela deportation-flight arrangement is paused for 30 or more consecutive days at any point in the next 12 months, since both governments showed this week they'd rather route flights around a damaged airport than pause the arrangement, and neither has an incentive to be the one who suspends it; another natural disaster or a diplomatic rupture are the only plausible triggers big enough to interrupt a cadence that just survived one already.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-05-03 — recorded 5 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-05-03.html