Iran and Oman formally sign or jointly announce their Strait of Hormuz transit-route agreement by August 31, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 7 Aug 26 Iran published draft toll terms unilaterally (5-7% cargo fee vs. Oman's ~3% proposal, a US/Israeli-vessel exclusion, 20% violation fines) that Oman has not confirmed matching, while new US sanctions on Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority and a Lloyd's Market Association clause voiding insurance for toll-paying vessels add friction against a genuinely joint, workable announcement landing by August 31.
- 9 Aug 26 Iran's Supreme National Security Council added maximalist conditions (a permanent US pledge never to threaten Iran, an end to the war and naval blockade, war-damage compensation, sanctions relief) well beyond the Iran-Oman transit-fee technical talks, and a fresh IRGC missile strike on an ADNOC tanker landed the same day as 'final phase' talk -- both cut against a clean joint Iran-Oman announcement by August 31.
- 10 Aug 26 FM Araghchi said Aug. 9 there is 'no possibility' of resuming talks with Washington while the U.S. continues violating the June memorandum, and CENTCOM reported a sharp jump in Hormuz vessel redirections (55, up from 35 a week earlier) -- both point to a hardening broader U.S.-Iran freeze that removes the political cover Tehran would need to bless even the separate, narrower Iran-Oman transit-route arrangement by August 31.
- 26 Aug 26 Iran and Oman outlined a phased framework (a temporary corridor plus a joint mine-clearing effort) rather than a signed transit-route agreement, with technical talks on a permanent corridor and its administration still to follow — real progress, but the market for a signed deal by August 31 has fallen from the ~90% snapshot cited at this call's opening to roughly 16-21%, well below the threshold needed to sustain a 'likely' call.
- 30 Aug 26 Iran's IRGC Navy restated August 28 that its control of Hormuz is "complete and decisive" and called US claims the strait is open "an outright lie" — maximalist language directly at odds with a signed Iran-Oman transit-route agreement landing by the August 31 deadline.
What would overturn it
A joint Tehran-Muscat statement or formal signing, versus a slippage in toll or blockade terms that stalls signing past the window.
Against the market
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
us 10% · Polymarket 90%Market snapshot 90% on 6 Aug 26.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 31 Aug 26.
Iranian and Omani foreign ministers issued a joint statement in Tehran on August 25 announcing agreement on a temporary Hormuz navigational corridor plus a joint mine-clearance project, finalizing the corridor's coordinates and revenue-sharing terms by August 26 — inside the window, though the permanent corridor remains under separate ongoing talks.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/26/iran-oman-agree-on-temporary-hormuz-route-what-we-know
As logged at issue
Likely Iran and Oman formally sign or jointly announce their Strait of Hormuz transit-route agreement by August 31 — both governments call the talks "final stage," and a liquid prediction market prices this at roughly 90%. Watch for a joint Tehran-Muscat statement, versus a slippage in toll or blockade terms that stalls signing past the window.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-06-01 — recorded 6 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-01.html