Colombian prosecutors formally charge the intercepted Cauca explosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander within 30 days of August 6, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An indictment naming Iván Mordisco's faction specifically, versus a charge sheet that stops at the low-level couriers without reaching faction leadership.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 7 Sep 26.
No formal indictment tying the Aug 5 Cauca explosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander was found within the window; the one named suspect directly tied to the plot ('Max Max', explosives chief) was killed in a military raid on Aug 12 rather than captured and charged, and the case still reads as an open investigation.
A named suspect being killed rather than captured breaks the chain to a formal courtroom indictment — a splashy interdiction with a media-anointed suspect doesn't guarantee a charging document within 30 days, especially once that suspect can no longer be tried.
As logged at issue
Roughly even odds Colombian prosecutors formally charge the intercepted Cauca explosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander within 30 days. Watch for an indictment naming Iván Mordisco's faction specifically, versus a charge sheet that stops at the low-level couriers without reaching faction leadership — the more common outcome in past interdictions.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-06-03 — recorded 6 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-03.html