Colombian prosecutors formally charge the intercepted Cauca explosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander within 30 days of August 6, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An indictment naming Iván Mordisco's faction specifically, versus a charge sheet that stops at the low-level couriers without reaching faction leadership.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 5 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even odds Colombian prosecutors formally charge the intercepted Cauca explosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander within 30 days. Watch for an indictment naming Iván Mordisco's faction specifically, versus a charge sheet that stops at the low-level couriers without reaching faction leadership — the more common outcome in past interdictions.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-06-03 — recorded 6 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-06-03.html