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The Tabularium · Call 2026-08-08-02Open

Congress appropriates any portion of the pledged $1 billion Colombia security package within 90 days, by November 6, 2026.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaUnited States
Issued No. 39 · 8 Aug 26  ·  Due 6 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 48% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%8 Aug 26 — 48% (No. 39): Opening calltodaydue 6 Nov 2648%8 Aug 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Language in an appropriations or supplemental bill naming Colombia's security package specifically, versus the pledge remaining unfunded while bilateral cooperation proceeds on existing authorities.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 6 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Roughly even odds Congress appropriates any portion of the pledged $1 billion Colombia security package within 90 days, by November 6 -- the State Department's announcement is a stated intent pending congressional action, not a funded program, and packages this size routinely stall in committee. Watch for language in an appropriations or supplemental bill naming Colombia specifically, versus the pledge remaining unfunded while bilateral cooperation proceeds on existing authorities.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-08-02 — recorded 8 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-08-02.html