Saudi Aramco will not have resumed operations at its Jazan refinery units by its previously stated August 15 target, following the second Houthi-claimed drone strike on the facility on August 9.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An Aramco or Saudi Energy Ministry statement confirming units back online by August 15; the counter-signal would be a further delay announcement or a third strike on the same facility.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 17 Aug 26.
Aramco pushed the Jazan restart from Aug 15 to a tentative Aug 30 per IIR Energy reporting (Aug 10-11), and Bloomberg reported a further Houthi drone strike on the same facility around Aug 13 — both a delay announcement and a third strike, well before the Aug 15 target, with no Aramco statement confirming units back online.
As logged at issue
It's roughly an even chance Aramco misses its own August 15 target for restarting the Jazan units damaged in July, given Sunday's second Houthi-claimed strike on the same facility -- unless the fire caused no fresh equipment damage.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-10-01 — recorded 10 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-10-01.html