Houthi forces will not gain physical control of Yemen's al-Makha port within 30 days of the August 10 missile and drone strikes on the port.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 20 Aug 26 Houthi military sources told AFP roughly 2,000 fighters with rocket launchers have deployed near Hodeidah preparing a further push south toward al-Makha and Bab el-Mandeb, raising the odds of an actual territorial gain within the window.
What would overturn it
A confirmed report that Houthi forces have taken physical control of al-Makha's port facilities from government control; the counter-signal would be continued missile/drone strikes without any ground assault on the port itself.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 10 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Given the pattern of missile and drone strikes rather than a ground assault so far, it's likely Houthi forces do not gain physical control of al-Makha's port within 30 days of Monday's strikes -- unless government forces report an actual ground withdrawal from the port.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-11-01 — recorded 11 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-01.html