Colombia's national government will formally request UN OCHA-coordinated international disaster assistance for the August 10 earthquake within two weeks (by August 25, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal Colombian government request to UN OCHA or the UN Resident Coordinator for coordinated international assistance; the counter-signal would be the government continuing to rely solely on bilateral pledges (US, France, Mexico, Ecuador, Israel, EU) as it has so far.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 31 Aug 26.
Colombia's Foreign Ministry sent a formal diplomatic note requesting international support and the government formally asked the UN to complement the national response; OCHA confirmed direct contact and issued a $148.1M Humanitarian Response Plan addendum within days of the quake.
As logged at issue
It's roughly an even chance Colombia's government formally requests UN OCHA-coordinated disaster assistance within two weeks of Monday's earthquake, given a hardline government's preference for bilateral partners over multilateral appeals so far.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-11-02 — recorded 11 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-02.html