The Libyan National Army will name a permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi military-intelligence post within 30 days of his August 10 assassination (by September 11, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An LNA or eastern-Libya government announcement naming a permanent director of Benghazi military intelligence; the counter-signal would be the post staying under an acting/interim chief past 30 days, or being quietly absorbed into another command.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 14 Sep 26.
No permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri had been publicly named as of Sept 14, three days past the 30-day deadline; the only follow-up reported is an investigative committee into the assassination led by Saddam Haftar, with no appointment of a new military-intelligence director.
Libyan internal-security appointments are under-covered in English-language media -- treat absence of reporting on personnel changes there as weaker evidence and lean toward NON_LIQUET unless a clear 'still acting/interim' statement exists, rather than MISS by default.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/11/east-libya-military-intelligence-chief-killed-in-car-bomb
As logged at issue
It's roughly an even chance the Libyan National Army names a permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi military-intelligence post within 30 days, rather than leaving it under an acting chief -- a sign of how much internal uncertainty Monday's assassination created about who else might be a target.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-12-01 — recorded 12 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-01.html