The Libyan National Army will name a permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi military-intelligence post within 30 days of his August 10 assassination (by September 11, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An LNA or eastern-Libya government announcement naming a permanent director of Benghazi military intelligence; the counter-signal would be the post staying under an acting/interim chief past 30 days, or being quietly absorbed into another command.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 11 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It's roughly an even chance the Libyan National Army names a permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi military-intelligence post within 30 days, rather than leaving it under an acting chief -- a sign of how much internal uncertainty Monday's assassination created about who else might be a target.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-12-01 — recorded 12 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-12-01.html