Panama Canal Authority slot-auction prices for priority transit will average above $1.5 million at least once in the two weeks following August 13, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 21 Aug 26 The Canal Authority's August 21 announcement of September transit cuts (34 to 32 daily, Panamax slots to 23) gives shippers a concrete scarcity signal well before the two-week window closes, which typically pulls priority-slot auction bidding higher in anticipation even though the cuts themselves don't take effect until September 3.
What would overturn it
A single reported slot-auction result crossing $1.5 million (via Argus, gCaptain, or the Panama Canal Authority itself); watch for transit demand easing or Gatun Lake levels recovering as the counter-signal.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 31 Aug 26.
Panama Canal priority-transit slot auctions repeatedly cleared $1.5 million during the window, culminating in a record $5.3 million bid (SK Gas Ltd., for a September 1 transit) reported around August 25 — well above the $4.6 million record set earlier in the month, with drought and Hormuz-related rerouting keeping demand elevated.
Source: https://gcaptain.com/panama-canal-auction-hits-new-record-at-5-3-million/
As logged at issue
We think it's roughly even odds Panama Canal slot-auction prices top $1.5 million at least once in the next two weeks -- watch for a single auction result crossing that mark, unless transit demand eases first.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-13-01 — recorded 13 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-13-01.html