RSF-aligned drones will not strike Khartoum or Atbara again within 14 days of the August 12, 2026 strikes.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 14 Aug 26 No further reported drone strike on Khartoum or Atbara since August 12; RSF activity around Al-Obeid continues (a water-station strike, per UN OCHA) but has not repeated the capital-area pattern, holding the call at its opening read.
What would overturn it
A further reported drone strike on Khartoum, Bahri, or Atbara before August 27; watch for a second capital-area strike as the signal a resumed pattern, not a one-off, is under way.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 31 Aug 26.
RSF drones struck Khartoum again the very next day (August 13), with Sudanese army air defenses engaging drones over Khartoum, Atbara and El-Damer — the counter-signal fired almost immediately within the 14-day window.
The forecast treated the August 12 strikes as an isolated one-off rather than an already-underway multi-day RSF drone offensive; the next day's continuation should have been the base-rate expectation.
As logged at issue
We think it's likely RSF-aligned drones do not strike Khartoum or Atbara again within 14 days of Wednesday's strikes -- a single incident after a three-month lull isn't yet a resumed pattern -- watch for a further reported capital strike before then.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-13-03 — recorded 13 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-13-03.html