At least one other EU or NATO member state publicly cites Poland's foiled assassination plot in announcing new counter-Russian-espionage or security measures within 30 days of August 13, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An EU or NATO member's official statement or policy action referencing the Warsaw plot specifically; continued silence beyond Poland itself is the counter-signal.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 12 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
We think it's roughly even that another EU or NATO state cites Poland's foiled assassination plot in new counter-Russian security measures within 30 days -- watch for continued silence beyond Poland as the counter-signal.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-14-02 — recorded 14 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-02.html