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The Tabularium · Call 2026-08-14-03Open

At least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case is reported in South Sudan by October 13, 2026.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR CongoSouth Sudan
Issued No. 45 · 14 Aug 26  ·  Due 13 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%14 Aug 26 — 30% (No. 45): Opening calltodaydue 13 Oct 2630%14 Aug 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A WHO or South Sudanese Ministry of Health confirmed-case announcement; tightened border screening at South Sudan crossings is an early signal either way.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 13 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

We think it's unlikely Congo's Ebola outbreak produces a confirmed case in South Sudan within 60 days, despite reaching a province 35 kilometers from the border -- watch South Sudanese and WHO screening posts for the first sign otherwise.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-14-03 — recorded 14 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-14-03.html