Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6,000 by September 14, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 9 Sep 26 WHO's September 7 situation report puts confirmed cases at 6,686, already past the 6,000 threshold with five days still remaining before the call's September 14 deadline.
What would overturn it
The weekly confirmed-case count is the signal: a count still under 5,500 by early September would be the first sign the fresh $30.5 million emergency-funding tranche is bending the curve; a count already past 6,000 before then confirms the call early.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 14 Sep 26.
WHO Disease Outbreak News (DON617) reported 6,757 confirmed cases as of September 7, already past 6,000 more than a week before the deadline, with follow-on reporting putting the count near 7,200 by Sept 12-13; the 0.5M funding tranche did not visibly bend the curve.
Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON617
As logged at issue
We think it's roughly even whether confirmed DRC Ebola cases surpass 6,000 by September 14 — the outbreak's trajectory points that way, but this month's fresh emergency funding could bend the curve first — watch the weekly case count for early signs the response is catching up.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-15-02 — recorded 15 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-15-02.html