Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly present in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A stalled or contested return rate past mid-September, or a court injunction blocking minor returns, would be the signal against it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 18 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days, given the EU's fresh legal green light and Morocco's earlier signaled readiness to cooperate; a stalled return rate past mid-September would be the signal against it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-19-02 — recorded 19 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-19-02.html