Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly present in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A stalled or contested return rate past mid-September, or a court injunction blocking minor returns, would be the signal against it.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 21 Sep 26.
Spain reported roughly 5,300 adult 'voluntary' returns to Morocco since August 10, but the government explicitly stated unaccompanied minors could not be summarily deported and repatriation of registered minors was reported stalled at roughly 2% as of early September, with officials declining to sign deportation files. Since the claim specifically required minors to be included in a 50%-plus return rate, and minor returns were severely stalled, the claim's condition was not met.
Aggregate 'migrants returned' figures can mask a near-total freeze on the legally distinct minors sub-population, which is exactly the group the forecast required to be moving.
Source: https://sharjah24.ae/en/Articles/2026/09/13/Spain-says-over-5300-migrants-left-Ceuta-in-month
As logged at issue
Likely Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days, given the EU's fresh legal green light and Morocco's earlier signaled readiness to cooperate; a stalled return rate past mid-September would be the signal against it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-19-02 — recorded 19 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-19-02.html