IOM's Missing Migrants Project will record more than 100 deaths or disappearances on the central Mediterranean (Libya-departure) route in the 30 days following August 18, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
IOM Missing Migrants Project's central Mediterranean route tally as of September 17, 2026.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 17 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
IOM’s Missing Migrants Project will likely record more than 100 deaths or disappearances off Libya’s coast in the 30 days following August 18’s dual sinkings, consistent with this summer’s elevated central Mediterranean crossing volume — a sharp drop would signal smuggling networks pausing departures rather than just weather easing.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-20-04 — recorded 20 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-04.html