IOM's Missing Migrants Project will record more than 100 deaths or disappearances on the central Mediterranean (Libya-departure) route in the 30 days following August 18, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
IOM Missing Migrants Project's central Mediterranean route tally as of September 17, 2026.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 21 Sep 26.
IOM's cumulative 2026 Central Mediterranean deaths/missing tally rose from roughly 821 through the first four months of the year to 996 by September 17 -- implying only about 175 additions over the ensuing four-and-a-half months combined, and no mass-casualty wreck was reported specifically on the Libya-departure route within the August 18-September 17 window. A greater-than-100 addition within this single 30-day window is not supported by the data.
IOM reports cumulative year-to-date tallies, not rolling 30-day windows, so calls pegged to a short window need a same-cadence comparison point at both ends to be gradable with confidence.
As logged at issue
IOM’s Missing Migrants Project will likely record more than 100 deaths or disappearances off Libya’s coast in the 30 days following August 18’s dual sinkings, consistent with this summer’s elevated central Mediterranean crossing volume — a sharp drop would signal smuggling networks pausing departures rather than just weather easing.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-20-04 — recorded 20 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-20-04.html