Canada publishes a specific, named list of retaliatory tariff targets (not just Carney's general 'dollar for dollar' pledge) within 7 days of the August 22, 2026 US 50% tariff imposition.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 23 Aug 26 Canada named the specific target list (steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, electronics) with a September 8 effective date, fulfilling the call well within the 7-day window.
What would overturn it
An official Canadian government announcement (PMO, Finance, or Global Affairs Canada) naming specific US goods or sectors targeted for retaliatory tariffs, rather than continued general pledges.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 31 Aug 26.
Finance Canada published a specific, named list of retaliatory tariff targets — over 700 US products worth roughly $27.6B across steel/aluminum, dairy, wood, textiles and electronics — with Carney and LeBlanc unveiling the package around August 22-25, comfortably within the 7-day window.
As logged at issue
Canada is likely to publish a specific dollar-for-dollar retaliation list within a week, rather than continue with only Carney's general pledge -- Ottawa has moved this fast in prior tariff rounds -- though a fresh White House offer to reopen talks would delay it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-22-01 — recorded 22 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-01.html