China does not conduct a large-scale (multi-day, multi-domain) military exercise near Taiwan in the 30 days before the reported September 2026 Xi-Trump meeting.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A PLA-announced large-scale exercise or drill encircling/near Taiwan in the run-up to the summit would overturn this; continued calibrated signals (aircraft shadowing, verbal statements) without a major drill would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 21 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is roughly even odds whether China holds off large-scale military exercises near Taiwan in the month before the reported Xi-Trump meeting, choosing calibrated signals like Friday's aircraft shadowing over a live-fire drill that would harden the mood going into the summit -- a PLA exercise announced in the next two weeks would be the signal this restraint has broken.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-22-03 — recorded 22 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-22-03.html