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The Tabularium · Call 2026-08-23-01Open

Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya will remain out of office (on leave, not resuming his duties) for at least 60 consecutive days from his August 22, 2026 second leave request.

Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico
Issued No. 54 · 23 Aug 26  ·  Due 22 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 58% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%23 Aug 26 — 58% (No. 54): Opening calltodaydue 22 Oct 2658%23 Aug 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A confirmed return to office by Rocha Moya before October 22, 2026 would overturn this; a formal, sustained interim-governor arrangement through that date would confirm it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 22 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Sinaloa's Congress is likely to keep Governor Rocha Moya out of office for at least 60 days this time, given Sheinbaum's public rebuke -- a quick third return, as happened in May, would be the signal his political shielding is still intact.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-23-01 — recorded 23 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-23-01.html