Iran does not file a formal notice of withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before January 1, 2027, despite Mohsen Rezaei's August 24 public questioning of the NPT's value.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal IAEA withdrawal notification or an official Iranian government announcement of NPT withdrawal would resolve this a miss; continued televised rhetoric from officials without a filed notice would not count as a change.
Against the market
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
us 87% · Polymarket 10% → 12%Market snapshot 10% on 24 Aug 26.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 1 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Iran is very likely to keep its nuclear rhetoric at the level of public pressure, with no formal NPT withdrawal notice filed before January 1 — a Polymarket contract on the same question prices withdrawal at just above 10 percent, in line with our own read; an actual IAEA withdrawal filing, rather than further televised remarks, is what would change this.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-24-01 — recorded 24 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-24-01.html