Saudi Arabia does not announce a formal countermeasure — a naval escort program, a war-risk insurance pool, or a formal UN protest — against the Houthi Yanbu tanker campaign within 30 days (by September 24, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Any Saudi government or state-media announcement of an escort program, an official insurance-backed risk pool, or a formal UN Security Council complaint naming the Yanbu campaign would resolve this a miss; continued quiet diplomatic or private-insurer absorption of the losses would not.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 24 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Riyadh has absorbed three tanker strikes since July 20 without a formal public countermeasure, consistent with a preference for the informal/diplomatic track over a declaratory response — but the campaign's persistence and Yanbu's roughly one-third export decline raise real pressure for some public step, so this is closer to likely than a safe bet either way.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-25-03 — recorded 25 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-25-03.html