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The Tabularium · Call 2026-08-26-03Open

Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal diplomatic protest or public objection from a recipient government within 60 days of the August 26 disclosure that 30 extraditions have been authorized in 16 days (by October 25, 2026).

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia
Issued No. 57 · 26 Aug 26  ·  Due 25 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%26 Aug 26 — 25% (No. 57): Opening calltodaydue 25 Oct 2625%26 Aug 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A formal note of protest or public objection from the U.S., Peru, Panama, or the Dominican Republic citing due process or political motivation on a specific case.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 25 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal diplomatic protest from a recipient government within 60 days of this week's 30-in-16-days disclosure. The receiving states so far have every incentive to welcome the cases rather than object. A note of protest on a specific case would flip this.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-26-03 — recorded 26 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-26-03.html