At least one FARC-dissident or ELN faction publicly claims a retaliatory attack tied to Colombia's 'Total Peace' reversal within 45 days of the August 26 extradition order.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A claimed attack from an affected faction explicitly citing the extraditions or the end of Total Peace; continued localized violence with no such claim would resolve this false.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 10 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even odds that at least one FARC-dissident or ELN faction publicly claims a retaliatory attack tied to the “Total Peace” reversal within 45 days of the August 26 extradition order (by October 10) -- de la Espriella's hardline shift removes the negotiating track several factions were still nominally using, but most dissident structures have kept violence localized rather than escalating over individual leadership losses this year; a claimed attack explicitly citing the extraditions or the policy reversal would resolve this true.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-28-02 — recorded 28 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-28-02.html