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The Tabularium · Call 2026-08-28-03Open

Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction, imposed alongside the August 27 curfew lift, remains in force unrelaxed to pre-emergency visa norms six months out.

PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastSudan
Issued No. 59 · 28 Aug 26  ·  Due 27 Feb 27  ·  Opening call 65% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%28 Aug 26 — 65% (No. 59): Opening calltodaydue 27 Feb 2765%28 Aug 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A formal announcement reopening Khartoum State to foreign nationals without special permits or visas would flip this; continued screening/permit requirements would resolve it true.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 27 Feb 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Likely that Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction, imposed alongside this week's curfew lift, remains in force unrelaxed to pre-emergency visa norms six months out (by February 27, 2027) -- army-aligned authorities cited security screening as the rationale in an active civil war, and governments that pair a normalization gesture with a tightened foreigner-entry rule rarely reverse it quickly; a formal announcement reopening Khartoum State to foreign nationals without special permits would flip this.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-28-03 — recorded 28 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-28-03.html