The US and China formally announce or sign an extended tariff/trade agreement by December 31, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A joint US-China statement, White House readout, or MOFCOM announcement formalizing the truce extension, ideally tied to the September 24 Xi-Trump Washington summit; the summit concluding with no joint statement on the truce would flip this.
Against the market
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
us 80% · Polymarket 86% → 90%Market snapshot 86% on 29 Aug 26.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely that the US and China formally announce or sign an extended tariff/trade agreement by December 31, 2026, in line with prediction-market pricing (Polymarket: 86% chance of a US-China tariff agreement by year-end) — both sides have already converged on a one-year extension framework ahead of the September 24 Xi-Trump summit, and neither government has signaled an incentive to let the truce lapse; the summit concluding without any joint statement on the truce would flip this.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-29-02 — recorded 29 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-29-02.html