Niger's junta suffers at least one further armed mutiny or coup attempt against Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani within 90 days of the August 29, 2026 attack on Niamey's airport and presidential palace (by November 28, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A wire report (AP, AFP, Reuters) of a further armed mutiny, attack on a government or military site, or coup attempt against the junta before November 28; 90 days with no such report flips this false.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 28 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely that Niger's junta suffers at least one further armed mutiny or coup attempt against Gen. Tiani within 90 days (by November 28) — this weekend's assault was the third attack on Niamey's airport this year, an established pattern rather than a single flashpoint, and the underlying factional grievances inside the security forces remain unresolved even though this attempt was contained; 90 days without another mutiny attempt reported by wire services would flip this false.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-30-01 — recorded 30 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-01.html