Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy conducts at least one more attack on a US or partner-country military site within 30 days of August 31, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 2 Sep 26 Iran's declared "decisive operation" on September 1 fired missiles at a US-linked base in Jordan, per Bloomberg/The Hill reporting, directly matching this call's condition within two days of it opening -- treating this as effectively resolving true pending final wire confirmation of the Jordan strike's target and damage.
What would overturn it
A confirmed strike (missile, drone, or mine) against a US or partner military facility reported by wire services within 30 days; 30 days with no further attack flips this false.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 5 Oct 26.
IRGC fired missiles and drones at US positions in Jordan, Bahrain and Erbil on Sept 2; Jordan intercepted ballistic missiles and Kuwait intercepted drones.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/2/iran-us-exchange-new-attacks-who-was-hit-in-latest-strikes
As logged at issue
Likely that Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy conducts at least one more attack on a US or partner-country military site within 30 days (by September 30) — today's direct exchange broke a month-long lull and fits a pattern of repeated escalation over the course of this war, not a one-off; 30 days with no further attack would flip this false.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-31-01 — recorded 31 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-01.html