Colombian security forces announce at least one more high-value kill or capture within Iván Mordisco's Estado Mayor Central within 60 days of August 31, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A named, official announcement of another high-value EMC kill or capture within 60 days flips this true; 60 days without one flips it false.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely that Colombian security forces announce at least one more high-value kill or capture within Iván Mordisco's Estado Mayor Central within 60 days (by October 30) — President de la Espriella has explicitly vowed to keep pressuring the network and took office pledging a hardline continuation of exactly this kind of operation; 60 days without a comparable announcement would flip this false.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-31-03 — recorded 31 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-31-03.html