A fourth CJNG-attributed bombing or armed attack against Mexican security forces occurs in Zacatecas within 14 days of today, by September 15, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A fourth attack matching the pattern (car bomb, IED, or direct assault on security forces) reported by Mexican authorities or media in Zacatecas by September 15, 2026. Counter-signal: a high-profile CJNG capture or a lull with no further attack in the window.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 21 Sep 26.
No fourth CJNG-attributed bombing or armed attack on security forces was reported in Zacatecas between September 1 and September 15, following the August 30 Ojocaliente car bomb (the third such incident in four days).
The army/National Guard surge into Ojocaliente after the high-profile bombing appears to have produced the lull the counter-signal anticipated, at least within this short window.
As logged at issue
A fourth CJNG-attributed bombing or armed attack against security forces likely hits Zacatecas within 14 days, given three such attacks already in four days — watch for a high-profile CJNG capture that breaks the retaliation cycle before September 15.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-01-02 — recorded 1 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-01-02.html