Polish authorities do not publicly and formally attribute the WB Electronics arson to a specific foreign state within 6 months, by March 1, 2027.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An official Polish government or prosecutorial statement formally naming a specific foreign state (e.g. Russia) as responsible for the WB Electronics fire, by March 1, 2027. Counter-signal: the investigation stays at 'foreign intelligence service' without naming a state.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 1 Mar 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Polish authorities likely do not formally and publicly attribute the WB Electronics arson to a specific foreign state within six months, consistent with how most of this year's European defense-sector sabotage cases have stayed at "suspected" rather than named attribution — a formal government statement naming a state actor would overturn this.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-01-04 — recorded 1 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-01-04.html