The EU formally imposes new sanctions on Russian individuals or entities specifically tied to the Leipzig airport drone plot within 60 days, by November 1, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An EU Council sanctions listing or designation explicitly citing the Leipzig incident, or Germany's proposed additions to the Russia sanctions list being formally adopted at EU level. Counter-signal: a single member state blocks the unanimity EU sanctions require, leaving the response at the bilateral (German/French) level only.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 1 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
The EU likely imposes new sanctions on Russian entities specifically tied to the Leipzig drone plot within 60 days, given Berlin's stated push and Hungary's unusual public backing -- unless a single holdout state blocks the unanimity EU sanctions require.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-02-01 — recorded 2 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-02-01.html