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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-03-02Hit

The EU's diplomatic service (EEAS) does not publicly release the specific accounts, networks, or entities behind its Russia/Israel Ceuta-disinformation finding within 30 days of September 1, 2026 (by October 1, 2026).

National SecurityEuropeSpainEuropean UnionRussiaIsrael
Issued No. 65 · 3 Sep 26  ·  Due 1 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 35% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%3 Sep 26 — 35% (No. 65): Opening calldue 1 Oct 26Hit35%3 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A formal EEAS report or named-entity disclosure (vs. Sánchez's general political statement) would flip this; governments citing internal information-operations assessments typically keep the underlying sourcing classified.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 5 Oct 26.

No EEAS report or named-entity disclosure surfaced; an EU spokesperson said only that Russia tried to exploit the crisis and there was no conclusive evidence disinformation triggered it.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spain-russia-israel-ceuta-migrant-crisis-disinformation/

As logged at issue

The EU's diplomatic service is unlikely to publicly release the specific accounts or networks behind its Russia/Israel disinformation finding within 30 days — governments citing internal assessments on information operations typically keep the sourcing classified.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-03-02 — recorded 3 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-03-02.html