The EU's Group of Five (Germany, Austria, Greece, Denmark, Netherlands) does not publicly name a host country for its migrant return hub before October 31, 2026.

The trajectory

The record since

• 6 Sep 26 No. 68 · revised to 62%
  Uganda and Rwanda have emerged as the leading candidates in press reporting from a September 4 Copenhagen ministerial, though the Group of Five has not formally or publicly confirmed either as its chosen host -- real movement toward a name, but short of the public naming this call tracks.
• 29 Oct 26 No. 121 · revised to 75%
  FT and RTL report Rwanda as the likely host, but none of the five governments has confirmed it, and a proposal may only come at the 16 November Vienna meeting.

What would overturn it

A named host country announced at or after the group's late-September Munich meeting; the group's own stated target is a 'common understanding' only around the New Year, which argues against an October host announcement.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.