At least one EU return hub outside the bloc is actually receiving deported migrants within 18 months of the September 2026 Group-of-Five announcement (by March 5, 2028).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 2 Oct 26 The EU Council gave final approval to the Return Regulation on Oct 1 with return-hub provisions applying on publication, removing the legal-basis hurdle; actual receipt of deportees at a hub is still unproven.
What would overturn it
A host government's own confirmation that transfers have begun, not just a signed agreement; a stalled or abandoned host-country negotiation, or a successful legal challenge under the Council of Europe's flagged human-rights concerns, would be the counter-signal.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 5 Mar 28 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Europe, longer horizon: We put it at roughly even odds that any EU return hub is actually receiving deported migrants within 18 months, given how far the mechanism still has to travel from a political agreement among five capitals to a signed deal with a host government, ratified domestic legal authority there, and physical intake -- the clearest early signal will be whether a host nation is even named by the group's own New Year target.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-05-03 — recorded 5 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-05-03.html