Japan or the Philippines lodges a formal diplomatic protest, or scrambles or deploys military or coast-guard assets, specifically in response to China's new coast-guard patrol pattern east of Taiwan, within 90 days of the September 7, 2026 report (by December 6, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A named formal protest or a documented scramble/deployment tied explicitly to these patrols before December 6 is the signal we're right; continued patrols met only with routine monitoring and no formal response from either country is the signal we're wrong.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 6 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Asia/Pacific: we think it's roughly even odds that Japan or the Philippines lodges a formal diplomatic protest or scrambles military or coast-guard assets specifically in response to China's new patrol pattern east of Taiwan, within 90 days (by December 6). Continued patrols met only with routine monitoring and no formal response from either country is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-07-04 — recorded 7 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-07-04.html