The US or Ecuadorian forces conduct a lethal vessel-interdiction strike publicly attributed to Los Tiguerones within 60 days of its September 9 foreign-terrorist-organization designation.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A DoD, SOUTHCOM, or Ecuadorian government statement naming Los Tiguerones as the target of a lethal boat strike or interdiction, as opposed to a strike attributed to Los Choneros or an unnamed trafficking vessel.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 8 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Rubio's September 9 Los Tiguerones FTO designation, paired with his statement that the US will 'still blow up ships if need be' and the precedent of the ongoing boat-strike campaign already running against the previously designated Los Choneros.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-10-01 — recorded 10 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-10-01.html