Washington's September 29, 2026 Section 338 import-ban proclamations against Canadian-origin alcohol, dairy products, molasses, and motorcycles take effect on that date as written, without being paused or narrowed by a negotiated US-Canada exemption.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
The bans taking effect September 29 without a carve-out is the signal we're right; a formally announced exemption, delay, or negotiated narrowing of the ban's scope before that date is the signal we're wrong.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 5 Oct 26.
The import bans took effect at 12:01am ET on Sept 29 as proclaimed; no negotiated exemption, delay or narrowing was announced (Sept 15 changes touched only the 50% duty lists).
As logged at issue
Canada/US: we think it's likely -- the first tranche of these proclamations is already proceeding on schedule toward its September 15 effective date, and this dispute has escalated at every turn since Canada's September 8 retaliation rather than cooling. A formally announced exemption or delay before September 29 is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-11-01 — recorded 11 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-11-01.html