Within 12 months of Switzerland's and the EU's September 2026 Sudanese-gold bans (by September 12, 2027), a credible investigation (a UN Panel of Experts report, an NGO trade-flow analysis, or a wire-service investigation) documents Sudanese-origin gold continuing to reach international markets via a third-country transshipment route, rather than showing a material, sustained drop in Sudanese gold reaching world markets.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A credible report documenting continued third-country transshipment of Sudanese gold is the signal we're right; a credible report of a material, sustained drop in Sudanese gold reaching international markets with no identified replacement route by September 2027 is the signal we're wrong.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 12 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Sudan/Switzerland: we think it's likely -- Sudanese gold's well-documented pre-sanctions reliance on third-country transshipment to reach world refiners makes a clean evasion route the base case, not the exception, once a single refining hub closes its door. A credible report of a material, sustained drop with no replacement route by September 2027 is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-12-03 — recorded 12 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-12-03.html