The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed to commercial shipping (near-zero transits) at some point before September 30, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Whether the Houthis move from selective targeting (sparing non-Saudi-flagged traffic) to a blanket blockade, or whether insurers/carriers treat the whole corridor as uninsurable regardless of flag.
Against the market
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
us 12% · Polymarket 5%Market snapshot 5% on 13 Sep 26.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 5 Oct 26.
Transits fell by roughly half but remained at tens per day; the strait never reached near-zero traffic before Sept 30.
Same as the Sept 7 call: 'effectively closed' is a far higher bar than disruption; selective targeting of Saudi-linked ships does not close a strait.
As logged at issue
Unlikely that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed to commercial shipping (near-zero transits) at any point before September 30 — today's halving to 15 transits a day is a severe disruption, not a closure, and the Houthis' own selective-targeting posture (sparing non-Saudi traffic) argues against a blanket blockade. A Polymarket contract on this exact question prices it at 5%; we lean modestly higher given the compounding Hormuz crisis, which could push more insurers and carriers to treat the whole region as uninsurable rather than just Saudi-linked cargo.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-13-02 — recorded 13 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-13-02.html