Japan's government formally resumes Henoko landfill/construction work within six months of Genta Koja's September 14, 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial win (by March 14, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A Ministry of Defense or Okinawa Defense Bureau announcement of resumed construction milestones at Henoko; counter-signal: a new legal challenge or local referendum specifically blocking the relocation.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 14 Mar 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely, on a six-month view, that Japan's government formally resumes Henoko landfill and construction work by March 14, 2027, following Genta Koja's decisive Okinawa win -- his predecessor's legal challenges were the main remaining obstacle, and a conservative governor removes Tokyo's need to keep negotiating around Naha. A fresh legal challenge or a local referendum specifically targeting the relocation is the signal this stalls again.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-14-03 — recorded 14 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-14-03.html