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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-15-01Hit

The UN Security Council reauthorizes Haiti's Gang Suppression Force (a resolution renewing or extending its mandate) before the current authorization lapses on September 30, 2026, with no gap in authorization.

Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanHaitiUnited StatesPanama
Issued No. 77 · 15 Sep 26  ·  Due 30 Sep 26  ·  Opening call 68% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%15 Sep 26 — 68% (No. 77): Opening calldue 30 Sep 26Hit68%15 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A UNSC resolution renewing the GSF mandate on or before September 30, with US and Panama as co-penholders pushing it. A lapsed mandate, a resolution that only partially extends it, or a Council failure to vote by the deadline would count against this.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 5 Oct 26.

UNSC Resolution 2829 (12-0-3) on Sept 29 renewed the Gang Suppression Force through March 31, 2027, a six-month renewal proposed by the US and Panama; no gap in authorization.

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-29/un-renews-haiti-force-mandate-for-six-months-after-fresh-gang-killings

As logged at issue

The UN Security Council will likely reauthorize Haiti's Gang Suppression Force before its September 30 mandate lapses, given active US-Panama co-sponsorship and Haiti's own government pressing for renewal — unless Council friction over funding or scope stalls a vote past the deadline.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-15-01 — recorded 15 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-15-01.html