Panama Canal average daily transit levels remain below 34 transits per day — its pre-2023-drought long-run norm — as of September 15, 2027.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 19 Sep 26 With October's proposed average already down to 29.5 and BIMCO reporting bulker transits off 22% year-on-year since July, the trajectory points further below the 34/day threshold rather than back toward it.
What would overturn it
Panama Canal Authority's published daily-transit figures a year out. A sustained return to 34-plus daily transits well before then would count against this.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Panama Canal transit levels are roughly as likely as not to still sit below pre-drought norms a year from now, given El Niño's typical nine-to-twelve-month cycle — unless the rains return early enough for the Canal Authority to restore full Panamax slots well before next September.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-15-04 — recorded 15 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-15-04.html