Saudi Arabia neither confirms nor denies the Houthi claim of an F-15 shootdown over Marib within 14 days of the claim (by September 30, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An official Saudi statement (Defense Ministry, coalition spokesman, or state media) explicitly confirming or denying the loss of the aircraft. Wreckage imagery verified by open-source analysts or a named pilot/family statement would also count as the claim resolving before Saudi Arabia itself speaks.
The verdict
Non liquet Resolved 5 Oct 26.
Saudi authorities issued no statement on the F-15 claim in available reporting, but Houthi wreckage video circulated and the counter-signal allows analyst-verified imagery to count; neither could be established.
Criteria mixing official-silence with third-party verification make the call undecidable.
As logged at issue
Saudi Arabia will likely keep the alleged F-15 loss neither confirmed nor denied for at least two weeks, continuing its pattern of silence on individual battlefield losses — unless wreckage imagery or a bereaved-family account forces an official statement first.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-16-01 — recorded 16 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-16-01.html