Poland's national prosecutors' rate of new top-tier Russia-linked espionage case openings over the 12 months following September 16, 2026 does not fall to half or below the roughly 2/month pace recorded over the prior 20 months (by September 16, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Polish national-prosecutor case-count disclosures (via ABW/prosecutor statements or credible press tallies) over the next 12 months. A sustained drop to roughly one or fewer new top-tier cases a month, sustained for several months, would count against this.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 16 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Poland's monthly rate of new Russian-linked espionage cases is likely to hold near its current pace rather than fall by half over the next year, given the shift to low-cost disposable recruits — unless a major disruption operation dismantles the recruitment pipeline itself, not just its agents.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-16-02 — recorded 16 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-16-02.html