Intelligence from the Global Frontier

← The Tabularium · Editions

The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-16-04Open

Colombia's government does not obtain court clearance to conduct aerial coca-eradication spraying in any department within 60 days of the September 11, 2026 Puerto Asís suspension (by November 10, 2026).

Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia
Issued No. 78 · 16 Sep 26  ·  Due 10 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 65% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%16 Sep 26 — 65% (No. 78): Opening calltodaydue 10 Nov 2665%16 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A Colombian court (in Putumayo or any other department) lifting the suspension or approving a new pilot, or the National Drug Council conducting spraying under a cleared order. Continued litigation with no active spraying anywhere by November 10 counts for this call.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 10 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Colombia's government will likely still lack court clearance to conduct aerial coca spraying anywhere in the country 60 days from now, given the technical health-and-environmental showing the Puerto Asís court demanded — unless Bogotá secures clearance in a different department first.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-16-04 — recorded 16 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-16-04.html