Houthi forces still hold both shores of Bab el-Mandeb (Perim, the Hanish islands, Mocha, and Dhubab) as of March 18, 2027.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 26 Sep 26 Houthi forces completed their seizure of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline and imposed a naval blockade; Yemen's government responded with a general-mobilization call rather than a counter-offensive, reinforcing that it lacks near-term capacity to dislodge Houthi control of the strait's shores.
What would overturn it
Credible reporting (Reuters/AP/AFP, UN, or Saudi-coalition statements) of a Saudi-coalition ground offensive that retakes any of these territories, or a negotiated Houthi withdrawal from the strait's shores. Continued Houthi administrative and military control with no reversal reported by the resolution date supports this call.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 18 Mar 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Houthi forces will very likely still hold both shores of Bab el-Mandeb six months from now, since reversing that territorial control would require a Saudi-coalition ground campaign neither side has shown appetite for so far -- unless a negotiated withdrawal, rather than a military reversal, changes the picture first.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-18-04 — recorded 18 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-18-04.html