Pakistan's military carries out at least one acknowledged cross-border strike or ground operation targeting militant safe havens inside Afghan territory within three weeks of the September 19, 2026 Kohat police-lines mosque bombing (by October 10, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An acknowledged Pakistani strike or raid on Afghan soil citing the Kohat attack or Ittihadul Mujahideen/Hafiz Gul Bahadur safe havens; a MISS if Islamabad confines its response to diplomatic protest or internal operations only.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 12 Oct 26.
Pakistan acknowledged air/drone strikes on ten Afghan sites on Sept 24 (Tarar), framed as post-Kohat action, with later strikes Oct 1.
As logged at issue
A car-bomb and gun assault on a police-lines mosque in Kohat killed 22 and wounded 103 on September 18-19; Ittihadul Mujahideen, a Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan faction led by Afghanistan-based commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur, claimed responsibility, and Pakistan has previously answered comparable mass-casualty attacks with cross-border strikes it attributes to Afghan-based militant sanctuaries.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-19-01 — recorded 19 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-19-01.html