The Houthi movement still controls the Bab el-Mandeb Red Sea gateway/islands it seized in September 2026, without having been militarily dislodged by a Saudi-coalition or other external campaign, twelve months on (by September 19, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 26 Sep 26 Same development -- the completed Red Sea coast seizure and a mobilization call signaling government weakness -- also strengthens the twelve-month version of this call.
What would overturn it
A Saudi-coalition, Egyptian, or other external military operation that retakes the gateway; a MISS if such a campaign is launched and succeeds within the window, even if Houthi forces retain other Red Sea coast positions.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 19 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Houthi forces seized Yemen's Bab el-Mandeb gateway this month, and reporting describes the U.S. as 'willing to watch from the sidelines' while shipping traffic through the strait has already fallen from a 35-40 to a 26-35 daily-vessel range -- with no external coalition currently mobilizing to retake the territory militarily.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-19-03 — recorded 19 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-19-03.html