The newly formed seven-group Ethiopian coalition (the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival) launches a coordinated multi-front military offensive within 60 days of its September 20, 2026 formation (by November 19, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Simultaneous or coordinated attacks by two or more member factions in different regions, versus continued separate, uncoordinated operations by each group in its own territory.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 19 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even odds the new seven-group Ethiopian coalition moves from a declared alliance to an actual coordinated multi-front offensive within 60 days, since folding together long-separate insurgencies with different territories and objectives typically takes longer to operationalize than to announce.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-21-02 — recorded 21 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-21-02.html